Who is forecasted to win the election

Why not in public? Whereas McAuliffe supports vaccine mandates in schools and a curriculum that addresses race, Youngkin decries mandates, though not the vaccine itself, and dismisses the teaching of critical race theory. Education has since risen to the forefront of Virginian electoral politics and comprised a large part of the battle between Youngkin and McAuliffe.

The Biden administration is at a critical point in garnering midterm support for Democratic candidates. Accordingly, a Youngkin, Republican win would be devastating for the left.

A wave of conservative enthusiasm would be likely to wash across the country if Youngkin can pull off a victory on Tuesday. Moreover, it could present Trump with a jumping-off point for a presidential campaign.

Our forecast predicts that Glenn Youngkin will win the Virginia Governorship with a two-party vote share of Our simulations predict that his chances of winning the race are Even though this may sound like a solid win, it is truly anything but.

Weighting polls by their sample sizes and their recency, we created a weighted running average of polls for each election for which poll results were available; as RealClearPolitics had compiled polls since , there are four elections on which we can train models which use polls.

Demographic data are available from to The demographic variables used are the percent of the population that identified as white and the unemployment rate in the year prior to the election, as we do not have data available for The election results included the Democratic percent of the vote share and Republican percent of the vote share.

We transformed these variables to create a response variable which is the two-party vote share of the Democratic candidate. This is equal to the Democratic percent of the vote share divided by the sum of the Democratic and Republican vote shares. The first model predicts the Democratic two-party vote share based on the final weighted running average. To take into account that the most recent polls available this year ended six days before the election, we excluded weighted running averages which were calculated after this time in past years.

Then, the closest weighted running average was used as the final weighted running average. We used a simple Ordinary Least Squares model, trained on the latest four elections. North Carolina. Modelled popular vote on each day The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party.

Sample size. Oct 31st-Nov 2nd. Likely to vote. YouGov Economist. Research Co. Oct 30th-Oct 31st. Oct 30th-Nov 1st. YouGov Yahoo. Wasserman believes that while polls are more stable in comparison to four years ago, President Trump is underperforming and though the race may tighten in the upcoming week, his path looks increasingly difficult. With exactly one week to go for the US election , Dave Wasserman, the polling guru who forecasted Republican candidate Donald Trump's win, is betting on Democratic candidate Joe Biden this time.

Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a solid margin in Wisconsin and maintains a narrower advantage in Pennsylvania with just over a week until November 3.

Do the data point to that happening? A forecast from Race to the WH, which collates its results by simulating the election 50, times, puts this all the way up at 99 percent. Electoral Polls' forecast is also well into the 90s, though slightly lower with Biden being given a The Economist 's forecast tips Biden as "very likely" to beat Trump, rating him at around 96 percent in terms of winning the election.

It also rates him at more than 99 percent in terms of winning the popular vote.